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العجز التجاري الأمريكي يرتفع لأعلى مستوى في 10 سنوات وسط توترات مع الصين

By كانون1/ديسمبر 06, 2018 4364

ارتفع العجز التجاري الأمريكي أكثر من المتوقع في أكتوبر إلى أعلى مستوى في عشر سنوات مما يسلط الضوء على إستمرار التداعيات من النزاع التجاري مع الصين. وإتسع العجز التجاري مع الصين إلى مستوى قياسي.

وأظهرت بيانات وزارة التجارة يوم الخميس إن العجز زاد 1.7% إلى 55.5 مليار دولار من قراءة معدلة 54.7 مليار دولار في الشهر الأسبق. وكان متوسط توقعات الخبراء الاقتصاديين الذين استطلعت بلومبرج أرائهم يشير إلى عجز قدره 55 مليار دولار. وارتفعت الواردات من كافة السلع والخدمات إلى مستوى تاريخي بينما إستقرت الصادرات دون تغيير يذكر.

وجعل الرئيس دونالد ترامب خفض الاختلال التجاري الأمريكي مع الصين واحدة من الأهداف الرئيسية لحروبه التجارية. وتظهر الدلائل، مثلما تعكسه أحدث البيانات، إن حربه لا تجدي نفعا حتى الأن.

وربما يؤثر مجددا صافي الصادرات سلبا على النمو في الربع الرابع—وإن كان بوتيرة أقل من الأشهر الثلاثة السابقة—وسط قوة في الدولار وغموض مستمر بشأن السياسة التجارية. ومن المرجح ان تبقى البيانات متقلبة بما يعكس التعجيل بإرسال الشحنات وسط تهديدات أمريكية بزيادة أخرى في الرسوم الجمركية، وإنهاء هذا التأثير بعد ذلك إذا إستأنفت الصين بعض الواردات.

وبلغ إجمالي الصادرات 211 مليار دولار بعد 211.4 مليار دولار في الشهر الأسبق. وشمل ذلك شحنات قياسية من النفط والمواد الصناعية والسلع الاستهلاكية.

وارتفعت الواردات 0.2% إلى 266.5 مليار دولار من 265.9 مليار دولار مما يعكس مشتريات قياسية للسيارات والسلع الاستهلاكية. وكان العجز التجاري الإجمالي في السلع أيضا هو الأعلى على الإطلاق.

وتأتي زيادة العجز التجاري في بداية ربع سنوي فيه من المتوقع بالفعل ان تنحسر وتيرة نمو الاقتصاد، بعد تحقيق أفضل نمو لفصلين متعاقبين منذ 2014. وربما تكون التداعيات السلبية أقل مقارنة بالربع الثالث عندما كان العبء الناتج عن صافي الصادرات هو الأسوأ منذ 1984.

وكشف التقرير ان العجز التجاري في السلع مع الصين، ثاني أكبر اقتصاد في العالم، قفز إلى 43.1 مليار دولار في أكتوبر من 40.2 مليار دولار.

وواصلت الصادرات الأمريكية من الفول الصويا هبوطها مما يعكس قفزة في وقت سابق من هذا العام قبل سريان رسوم إنتقامية للصين على الولايات المتحدة. وأظهرت بيانات يوم الخميس إن مبيعات الفول الصويا للزبائن في الخارج هوت بنحو النصف في أكتوبر مقارنة بالشهر السابق.

هيثم الجندى

خبرة أكثر من 15 عام في التحليل الأساسي (الإخباري والاقتصادي) لأسواق المال العالمية ومتابعة تطورات الاقتصاد العالمي بالإضافة إلى قرارات البنوك المركزية 

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