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مؤشر "داكس" الألماني ينهي عام 2018 على أسوأ أداء في 10 سنوات

By كانون1/ديسمبر 28, 2018 2321

إختتم مؤشر داكس للأسهم الألمانية عام 2018 على أسوأ أداء في عشر سنوات منهيا دورة صعود إستمرت لست سنوات وسط توترات تجارية عالمية أخذة في التصاعد.

وقال ماركوس شتينبيس، المدير التنفيذي لشركة إدارة الأصول شتينبيس اند هيكر، "في وجود نسبة كبيرة من الشركات الُمصدرة،  يُنظر للمؤشر القياسي الألماني كمؤشر للعولمة، وبعض الشيء كمؤشر يقيس المعنويات إزاء التجارة العالمية".

وارتفع مؤشر داكس 1.7% إلى 10.558.96 نقطة يوم الجمعة. وإجمالا، انخفض المؤشر الرئيسي 18% هذا العام ودخل في سوق هابطة في وقت سابق من هذا الشهر حيث زادت التحذيرات حول الأرباح وسادت مخاوف جيوسياسية وتسارعت موجة بيع في أسواق الأسهم العالمية. وهذه أسوأ نتيجة سنوية منذ 2008 عندما أثارت الأزمة المالية هبوطا نسبته 40%.

وألمانيا هي أول سوق أوروبية رئيسية تختتم العام حيث أغلقت البورصة الألمانية تداولاتها في الساعة الثانية بعد الظهر بتوقيت فرانكفورت.

وقال شتينبيز"مع ظهور حماية تجارية ونزعة قومية حول العالم، يعاني المؤشر من إنسحاب تدريجي من العولمة".

وشهدت أسهم  الشركات الصغيرة والمتوسطة نفس المصير لينزل مؤشرا "اس داكس" و"ام داكس"  20% و18% على الترتيب.

وأصدرت مجموعة واسعة من الشركات المدرجة على مؤشر داكس، من شركات سيارات مثل دايملر وبي.أم.دبليو إلى شركة إنتاج السكر "زود سوكر" وعملاق التجزئة "سيكونومي ايه.جي"، تحذيرات حول الأرباح، البعض منهم لعدة مرات، هذا العام. وتكافح أكبر بنوك مقيدة للدولة، دويتشة بنك وكوميرزبنك، لتحسين الإيرادات  إذ انخفضت القيمة السوقية للبنك الأخير إلى مستوى متدن جدا جعله يفقد إدارجه على المؤشر القياسي في سبتمبر.

وفيما زاد الأمور سوءا، أصبح الوضع السياسي في برلين الأكثر توترا منذ سنوات. فبعد ثورة مفاجئة داخل تكتلها البرلماني، تخلت المستشارة أنجيلا ميركيل عن منصبها كرئيسة للحزب وقالت إن فترتها كمستشارة، التي تنتهي في 2021، ستكون الأخيرة لها. وفي نفس الأثناء، تنشغل ميركيل بالحفاظ على استقرار ائتلافها الذي يضم ثلاثة أحزاب، وسط خلافات أبرزها حول اللاجئين.

ومن المنتظر ان تبقى مظاهر كثيرة لعدم اليقين مثل مفاوضات إنسحاب بريطانيا من الاتحاد الأوروبي والتوتر التجاري وتشديد سياسة البنك المركزي الأوروبي العام القادم، وسيصاحبها تحديات جديدة مثل انتخابات البرلمان الأوروبي في مايو، لكن يبقى خبراء متفائلين بعض الشيء. وفي منتصف ديسمبر، خلصت تقديرات 14 محللا ان مؤشر داكس سينهي عام 2019 عند 11.836 نقطة في المتوسط—بزيادة نسبتها 12%.

هيثم الجندى

خبرة أكثر من 15 عام في التحليل الأساسي (الإخباري والاقتصادي) لأسواق المال العالمية ومتابعة تطورات الاقتصاد العالمي بالإضافة إلى قرارات البنوك المركزية 

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