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الاقتصاد الألماني مهدد بركود في 2019 وسط قلق حول العمود الفقري لصناعة الدولة

By كانون1/ديسمبر 28, 2018 979

يعتقد أكثر من نصف الشركات الصغيرة والمتوسطة الحجم في ألمانيا إن أكبر اقتصاد في أوروبا قد ينكمش العام القادم متضررا من تباطؤ النمو العالمي والخلافات التجارية وتعثر قطاع السيارات.

وتخشى نحو 53% من تلك الشركات، المعروفة بالألمانية باسم "ميتل ستاند “Mittelstand، والتي استطلع أرائها اتحاد "بي.في.ام.دبليو" للصناعات من احتمال حدوث ركود في الأشهر الاثنى عشر القادمة. ويشكل أيضا احتمال خروج بريطانيا من الاتحاد الأوروبي بشكل فوضوي مصدر تهديد.

وتتناقض هذه المعنويات المتشائمة مع نهاية عام 2017 عندما شهد الاقتصاد نموا قويا يدعمه إنفاق داخلي قوي وتجارة عالمية مزدهرة.

وتدهورت البيانات الاقتصادية بشكل كبير منذ حينها، وينقسم الخبراء الاقتصاديون حول ما إن كانوا يشيرون إلى إستمرار نمو اقتصادي أبطأ لكن مستقر، أم بداية ركود.

ويؤثر أيضا نقص مستمر في العمالة الماهرة على أفاق النمو إذ واجهت 92% من الشركات الصغيرة والمتوسطة الحجم صعوبة في شغل وظائف شاغرة، حسبما قال اتحاد "بي.في.ام.دبليو". ويمثل هذا الاتحاد حوالي 270 ألف شركة توظف نحو تسعة ملايين عاملا، بحسب موقعه الإلكتروني.

هيثم الجندى

خبرة أكثر من 15 عام في التحليل الأساسي (الإخباري والاقتصادي) لأسواق المال العالمية ومتابعة تطورات الاقتصاد العالمي بالإضافة إلى قرارات البنوك المركزية 

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